Picked up some MTN pink sheets on the US OTC market last week, MTN has a major share of the Nigeria Mobile market and at the moment the only way to plug into the massive profits MTN are making is to pick up some shares whereever they maybe.
MTN being a south african based company, its quoted on the Jo'burg stock exchange (JSE) but also trade ADR's in the US, prices as equal value to MTN on the JSE. Nigeria represents a big profit centre for MTN and hopely they will list on the NSE some time soon.
Their pink sheet ticker is MTNOY and on the JSE it's MTN.
18 January 2007
16 January 2007
Dangote Sugar
When is Dangote Sugar hitting the trading floor?
In my opinion, it is a bit slow coming out of the gate, by now the shares should be available for trading.
People what is delaying Dangote hitting the trading floor; is it something we should be concerned about or is it post-seasonal holiday blues.
Personally, I think its one of two things either it’s grossly over-subscribed and the bean counters are trying to work out distribution formula to best suit each Big Boy investor- be it Bank or individual.
Since we all know there is nothing like stable electricity we know that Dangote Sugar is still not as pretty as Transcorp and God forbid, what if it was under-subscribed! Haba Mallam, all is not well be that!
Under-subscription is equally as bad an outcome, cutting back the fat to the bone and leaving brokers with a lost opportunity.
If you guys have any gist do let me know.
In my opinion, it is a bit slow coming out of the gate, by now the shares should be available for trading.
People what is delaying Dangote hitting the trading floor; is it something we should be concerned about or is it post-seasonal holiday blues.
Personally, I think its one of two things either it’s grossly over-subscribed and the bean counters are trying to work out distribution formula to best suit each Big Boy investor- be it Bank or individual.
Since we all know there is nothing like stable electricity we know that Dangote Sugar is still not as pretty as Transcorp and God forbid, what if it was under-subscribed! Haba Mallam, all is not well be that!
Under-subscription is equally as bad an outcome, cutting back the fat to the bone and leaving brokers with a lost opportunity.
If you guys have any gist do let me know.
04 January 2007
Transcorp Valaution
I had a read of Transcorp's prospectus posted on Vitiva's website and must say I'm delighted with the asset base uderwriting their IPO.
The purchase of of 51% of Nitel along is worth the value of shares on offer, for US$500 Billion in naira. Apparently, new managers were brought in to help with restructuring, the same to MTEL the mobile side of Nitel.
Generally, telecommunications in Nigeria is still at an early stage with enormous potential for double figure growth, MTEL have a good chance of growing MTEL's market share further.
We could easily ask, is MTEL worth the One Billion Dollar price tag? To answer my own question - Yes. I would look at a valuation method of at least 25 times forward earnings which, major mobile providers where roughly values at when debuted on European and US bourses.
So the question is, can MTEL achieve an annual earning of 600 naira per user even in on a conservative user base of 4 million users over the next decade? I definitely think so.
In Nigeria even with MTEL co-exiting with the other mobile providers like CELTEL and MTN,there is plenty more growth to be acheieved
Over the next decade mobile and data usage will grow in market size and consumption providing earning potential for even the weakest of providers.
Obviously, there are question as to the issue of Nigeria's risk profile and how best Transcorp's managers sweat the assets they have but this will become known over time and time is what I have.
Transcorp's prospectus list numerous proposed business forays, the viability of these streams or even the survival of such businesses is an unknown quantity but what is transparent to me is the recognition by Transcorp's and their bankers of the huge potential in businesses currently suffering from under-capitalisation and neglect.
Take movie production and studio facilities, Nigerian movies are sought world-wide but we consumers are aware of the the makeshift studio and scare post-production services but still buy regardless!
Hopely, this will make Nollywood a more desirable product, the fact that Transcorp have the capital and clout to fund better facilities and movies, industry-wide product quality will improve as a result raising the bar.
As I've said I will be buying some shares for myself, if not at the IPO maybe in the aftermarket but Transcorp is going be part of my retirement fund!
The purchase of of 51% of Nitel along is worth the value of shares on offer, for US$500 Billion in naira. Apparently, new managers were brought in to help with restructuring, the same to MTEL the mobile side of Nitel.
Generally, telecommunications in Nigeria is still at an early stage with enormous potential for double figure growth, MTEL have a good chance of growing MTEL's market share further.
We could easily ask, is MTEL worth the One Billion Dollar price tag? To answer my own question - Yes. I would look at a valuation method of at least 25 times forward earnings which, major mobile providers where roughly values at when debuted on European and US bourses.
So the question is, can MTEL achieve an annual earning of 600 naira per user even in on a conservative user base of 4 million users over the next decade? I definitely think so.
In Nigeria even with MTEL co-exiting with the other mobile providers like CELTEL and MTN,there is plenty more growth to be acheieved
Over the next decade mobile and data usage will grow in market size and consumption providing earning potential for even the weakest of providers.
Obviously, there are question as to the issue of Nigeria's risk profile and how best Transcorp's managers sweat the assets they have but this will become known over time and time is what I have.
Transcorp's prospectus list numerous proposed business forays, the viability of these streams or even the survival of such businesses is an unknown quantity but what is transparent to me is the recognition by Transcorp's and their bankers of the huge potential in businesses currently suffering from under-capitalisation and neglect.
Take movie production and studio facilities, Nigerian movies are sought world-wide but we consumers are aware of the the makeshift studio and scare post-production services but still buy regardless!
Hopely, this will make Nollywood a more desirable product, the fact that Transcorp have the capital and clout to fund better facilities and movies, industry-wide product quality will improve as a result raising the bar.
As I've said I will be buying some shares for myself, if not at the IPO maybe in the aftermarket but Transcorp is going be part of my retirement fund!
03 January 2007
Market Liquidity
Transcorp aims to raise N7.5 x 8,000,000,000(eight billion)shares which is N60,000,000,000 more or less US$500 Million or even more fashionable phrase of half a billion dollars!
Now that's a lot of money anyway you look at it, I'm sitting here thinking, what's the effect of the Transcorp IPO to the liquidity of the marketplace. Mopping up this much liquidity from the market would definitely have some kind of effect on the marketplace negative or positive I don't know but what I do what to know is who's underwriting the offer and what happens if it's under subscribed?
Google raised six times the same amount but Google operates in a marketplace that's many many times more liquid and with greater capitalisation than the Nigerian Stock Exchange(NSE).
My personal sentiment is in favour of Transcorp but, I'm a bit concerned about the lack of fundamentals available. The current portfolio of Transcorp Hilton, MTEL and NITEL don't value at US$500 Billion so there's a risk/value proposition here.
Usually, your risk/value proposition is backed with some kind of cashflow or forward earnings proposition, I don't see any being mentioned or relied upon!
Like I said I'm all for it but, it'll be nice to know what the juju is!
Now that's a lot of money anyway you look at it, I'm sitting here thinking, what's the effect of the Transcorp IPO to the liquidity of the marketplace. Mopping up this much liquidity from the market would definitely have some kind of effect on the marketplace negative or positive I don't know but what I do what to know is who's underwriting the offer and what happens if it's under subscribed?
Google raised six times the same amount but Google operates in a marketplace that's many many times more liquid and with greater capitalisation than the Nigerian Stock Exchange(NSE).
My personal sentiment is in favour of Transcorp but, I'm a bit concerned about the lack of fundamentals available. The current portfolio of Transcorp Hilton, MTEL and NITEL don't value at US$500 Billion so there's a risk/value proposition here.
Usually, your risk/value proposition is backed with some kind of cashflow or forward earnings proposition, I don't see any being mentioned or relied upon!
Like I said I'm all for it but, it'll be nice to know what the juju is!
Transcorp
I won't lie to you, the market sentiment on Transcorp is hard to measure, I sit here in London glued to BENTV seeing Transcorp adverts scrolling the TV; I can't pretend not to be interested in the fanfare surrounding Transcorp IPO.
I remember in June 1999 when Ariba a US quoted stock debuted on the nasdaq amide the same kind of funfare and roadshows, and I also remember what happened to the stock price when the market boom was over!
In stockmarkets there where winners and losers and like in any marketplace there is always money to be made and likewise suckers are born everyday, which are you?
What is Transcorp offering, what are their fundamentals? what's the cashflow like?and when do you intend becoming profitably?, who are the managers? and what markets are they in? and what is their burn rate?
Hopely, my questions will be answered over the coming months or even years, I hope to draw from my own experience in recognising investment opportunities; I will be opening a share account and share my investment trades here for all to see!
So, if you have any recommendation on who to use as a broker. please email me or use the comment box.
I remember in June 1999 when Ariba a US quoted stock debuted on the nasdaq amide the same kind of funfare and roadshows, and I also remember what happened to the stock price when the market boom was over!
In stockmarkets there where winners and losers and like in any marketplace there is always money to be made and likewise suckers are born everyday, which are you?
What is Transcorp offering, what are their fundamentals? what's the cashflow like?and when do you intend becoming profitably?, who are the managers? and what markets are they in? and what is their burn rate?
Hopely, my questions will be answered over the coming months or even years, I hope to draw from my own experience in recognising investment opportunities; I will be opening a share account and share my investment trades here for all to see!
So, if you have any recommendation on who to use as a broker. please email me or use the comment box.
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